IADR Abstract Archives

Dental Workforce Planning in Thailand: a System Dynamics Modeling

Objectives: To estimate the future supply of dental workforce based on the projection of oral healthcare demand in Thailand from 2017 to 2037.
Methods: A three-stage system dynamics model was developed to consolidate the relationship between the oral healthcare demand for Thai population and the supply of dental personnel. The demand model combined population demography and types of oral healthcare needs (prevention, simple and complex treatment) with dental services used in different facilities based on the National oral health survey data was developed. Then, the projections on workforce supply based on work hours and competencies were analyzed to produce the estimation of future workforce. Finally, four potential policies including the ranges of skill-mix in dental care team and distribution of dental personnel were simulated to compare the projection of required dental workforce in each scenario.

Results: The result showed that the numbers of dentists and dental nurses were projected to increase from 2017 to 2037 by 87% and 64%, respectively as the current policy. The private dentists were estimated to be 73% of dental providers in 2037. However, the unmet oral healthcare need was projected to decrease by only 20%. The public supply was still unable to meet the population demand, while the number of dentists in private practice was projected to be over the population demand for simple dental treatment in 2025. The study suggested that scenario of skill-mix dental care team and public-private cooperation for health insurance system would provide the most benefit in decreasing the unmet oral healthcare need by 33% in 2037.
Conclusions: The planning of sufficient and sustainable dental workforce involves the dynamics of demand and supply in oral health system as a whole. This simulation model can provide policy makers with additional insights to support strategic dental health workforce planning efforts.


2020 South East Asia Division Meeting (Virtual)

2020
S015
Behavioral, Epidemiologic and Health Services Research
  • Jaichuen, Wararat  ( Ministry of Public Health , Nonthaburi , Thailand )
  • Urwannachotima, Nipaporn  ( Chulalongkorn University , Bangkok , Thailand )
  • Leerapan, Borwornsom  ( Faculty of Medicine Ramathibodi Hospital, Mahidol University , Bangkok , Thailand )
  • Teekasap, Pard  ( Stamford International University , Bangkok , Thailand )
  • Meeyai, Aronrag  ( London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine , London , United Kingdom )
  • Chiangchaisakultha, Kwanpracha  ( International Health Policy Program , Nonthaburi , Thailand )
  • Udomaksorn, Khunjira  ( Faculty of Pharmacy, Prince of Songkla University , Sonkla , Thailand )
  • None
    Ministry of Public Health, Thailand
    Oral Session
    Oral 1
    Thursday, 11/26/2020 , 03:15PM - 05:00PM