IADR Abstract Archives
Exploring Access to 5000ppm Fluoride Toothpaste using System Dynamics Modelling
Objectives: Toothpaste containing 5000ppm fluoride has been recommended for special needs patients having high caries risk. In addition, non-foaming toothpaste has been recommended specifically for people with aspiration risk. However, the product is not available in Thailand, along with other products for this population such as saliva substitute and alcohol-free chorhexidine rinse/gel.
This study aims for 1) estimating the market size and variables influencing the demand and supply of 5000ppm fluoride toothpast with low or 0% SLS in the next 10 years (2019-2028); 2) exploring the leverage points with stakeholders to increase access to the product.
Methods: Using 10 year historical data available from literature review and governmental databases; we constructed a simulation model of factors and relationships affecting demand and supply of the product, based on system dynamic approach, using Vensim PLE version 7.3. Then, the model was verified by stakeholders, i.e. 5 representatives from research/educational institutions, 5 oral care product companies, and 1 administrator from Ministry of Health, during a two hour face-to-face meeting to examine logical structure and completeness of factors specifically for Thailand context.
Results: Three main factors affecting consumption rate were identified: 1) awareness of dental professionals, 2) physical accessibility, and 3) financial affordability. Each category of main factor comprises of sub-factors: e.g. curriculum and continuing education sessions, social-media, marketing and sales information, and words of mouth; regulations and types of FDA approval, numbers of suppliers (imported and locally made), market size, rate of easiness to find; pricing and willingness to pay; insurance coverage; and ad hoc financial support from municipality.
Conclusions: Multiple "if-then" scenarios can be simulated to show future consumption rate per year. This model can also be adapted to study other products to help decision makers visualize how to increase access to care for special needs population.
This study aims for 1) estimating the market size and variables influencing the demand and supply of 5000ppm fluoride toothpast with low or 0% SLS in the next 10 years (2019-2028); 2) exploring the leverage points with stakeholders to increase access to the product.
Methods: Using 10 year historical data available from literature review and governmental databases; we constructed a simulation model of factors and relationships affecting demand and supply of the product, based on system dynamic approach, using Vensim PLE version 7.3. Then, the model was verified by stakeholders, i.e. 5 representatives from research/educational institutions, 5 oral care product companies, and 1 administrator from Ministry of Health, during a two hour face-to-face meeting to examine logical structure and completeness of factors specifically for Thailand context.
Results: Three main factors affecting consumption rate were identified: 1) awareness of dental professionals, 2) physical accessibility, and 3) financial affordability. Each category of main factor comprises of sub-factors: e.g. curriculum and continuing education sessions, social-media, marketing and sales information, and words of mouth; regulations and types of FDA approval, numbers of suppliers (imported and locally made), market size, rate of easiness to find; pricing and willingness to pay; insurance coverage; and ad hoc financial support from municipality.
Conclusions: Multiple "if-then" scenarios can be simulated to show future consumption rate per year. This model can also be adapted to study other products to help decision makers visualize how to increase access to care for special needs population.