IADR Abstract Archives
Needs-based Planning for the Oral Health Workforce - Simulations for Ireland
Objectives: To present methods for incorporating populations needs into oral health workforce planning methods and to illustrate the application of the methods using the example of dental care in Ireland.
Methods: As part of the EU Horizon 2020 ADVOCATE project the conceptual framework provided by the WHO Collaborating Centre on Health Workforce Planning & Research was used to develop an analytical framework to simulate future dental workforce requirements for year 2030. The simulation model was populated with data applicable to the population of Ireland (including publicly available data and data from the Eurobarometer 330 Oral Health Survey), thereby incorporating variation in population dental morbidity and checking the robustness of results against various scenarios to take account of uncertainties in model input parameters.
Results: Acrossdifferent scenarios reflecting variations in demography and morbidity as well as uncertainty in other relevant model input parameters, the simulation model identified substantial differences in the forecasted requirements for the future dental workforce in Ireland. In comparison to extrapolating the current dentist-to-population ratio into the year 2030, the model identified scenarios for which the future dental workforce would need to be increased or decreased. This also highlights the extent of uncertainty in model input parameters.
Conclusions: Incorporating population oral health needs in dental workforce planning is essential to warrant safe, efficient, and sustainable oral health care. Failing to plan future oral health workforces according to people’s oral health needs imposes considerable risks of over- or undersupply of dental care capacity, thereby wasting resources and jeopardizing oral health levels in the population. If future dental workforces are to contribute efficiently to population wellbeing, there is a strong need for more comprehensive monitoring of population’s oral health.
Methods: As part of the EU Horizon 2020 ADVOCATE project the conceptual framework provided by the WHO Collaborating Centre on Health Workforce Planning & Research was used to develop an analytical framework to simulate future dental workforce requirements for year 2030. The simulation model was populated with data applicable to the population of Ireland (including publicly available data and data from the Eurobarometer 330 Oral Health Survey), thereby incorporating variation in population dental morbidity and checking the robustness of results against various scenarios to take account of uncertainties in model input parameters.
Results: Acrossdifferent scenarios reflecting variations in demography and morbidity as well as uncertainty in other relevant model input parameters, the simulation model identified substantial differences in the forecasted requirements for the future dental workforce in Ireland. In comparison to extrapolating the current dentist-to-population ratio into the year 2030, the model identified scenarios for which the future dental workforce would need to be increased or decreased. This also highlights the extent of uncertainty in model input parameters.
Conclusions: Incorporating population oral health needs in dental workforce planning is essential to warrant safe, efficient, and sustainable oral health care. Failing to plan future oral health workforces according to people’s oral health needs imposes considerable risks of over- or undersupply of dental care capacity, thereby wasting resources and jeopardizing oral health levels in the population. If future dental workforces are to contribute efficiently to population wellbeing, there is a strong need for more comprehensive monitoring of population’s oral health.